Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has most likely made Taiwan safe from Chinese military action for a generation – with images of captured Russian soldiers, burnt out tanks, disciplined and motivated resistance coupled with sanctions and the general revulsion from the wider world. The parallels of lost Slavic and Chinese territories will count for little against the risk to the Chinese Communist Party. Sanctions may not be as tough, but if Beijing attempted to take Taiwan by force, they would come thick and steady. Also, the U.S. would not have NATO restricting its direct involvement. What remains unclear is whether Beijing is using Russia as street muscle to create a new world order, or whether it is staying quiet to learn from Putin’s mistakes and working out another way to project its values and influence. Either way, Russia is set to come out of this as very much the weaker, maybe even a broken, junior partner. The other thought is that Xi and Putin have hatched a plan to strike on two fronts. Could Xi be that crazy and could he carry the CCP with him? A week ago, many experts were convinced that Putin would not invade Ukraine. They were wrong.
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