As Russia ramps up the war in Ukraine and China plays dog fights with US spy planes, the focus of global threat is on ISIS, an organised crime operation that runs on fear and extortion. It has no seat at the UN Security Council. It is not a lynchpin of international trade. It makes nothing. It has no missile silos and aircraft carriers. To deal with it, we should draw experience not from the insoluble tribal and religious tapestry of the Middle East, but the gangland neighbourhoods of London, Los Angeles and Mumbai where — predictably — power vacuums and weak government spawn this type of violence. Once that’s done, minds need to concentrate on the rise of China and hostility of Russia because if we get this wrong it will be really bad.