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Ciao Review

09 8th, 2011

I just found this Ciao review on Third World War:-  

Hawksley’s books, at least the ones that I own, are not your average works of fiction. I am a big fan of Tom Clancy, but this kind of writing is in a class/category of its own. Although you have your standard cast of characters, the way he’s constructed it, doesn’t quite make you feel like you are reading a fictional story. It’s more like a string of news items, which almost give a real-world feel to the things that are going on in the book. Very unique style of writing indeed! But I should tell you that it’s still up there with the rest of the superb works of fiction!!

Click here: Ciao Review

The Third World War — A Future History

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China downgrade

09 8th, 2011

And if we thought Asia was OK…..Fitch Ratings has warned  that it might downgrade the credit rating of China  within two years and there was a greater than even chance of a downgrade of Japan’s credit status.   So in the past couple of months, big warning signs over the world’s three biggest economies — America, China and Japan. 

The Third World War — A Future History

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Rethinking African Governance

09 7th, 2011

Eric Komfel alerted me to a DFID funded study Working with the Grain? Rethinking African Governance, and published earlier this year.  Eric cites an excerpt:- 

Excerpts: “Should the governance of poor developing countries mimic what works in advanced capitalist democracies? Of course not. Yet for 20 years ‘good governance’ has meant exactly that. … Democracy … depends on social and economic conditions that are not yet enjoyed in most developing countries. … Many young democracies are not particularly developmental … In many settings, clientelism (vote-buying in its various forms) is cheaper and more reliable … What poor developing countries really need are leaders who … are able to show that they can ‘get things done’. … It is important, therefore, that external actors such as donors are capable of: recognising developmental leadership when they see it, by becoming more attuned to the variety of types of regimes and how they work”.

Click here: Democracy Kills: What’s So Good About The Vote

Click here: Democracy Kills — Kindle Edition

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Europe and money

09 6th, 2011

Europe’s financial crisis has underlined a tricky truth.  Power among the 17 sovereign Euro states may have to be more centralised if monetary union is to work.  The United States discovered this in the 18th Century, when the loose confederation between 13 states failed to work without a strong central authority.

It may not be high idealism but grubby reality that leads to the creation of the United States of Europe.

The Third World War — A Future History

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Libya v Iraq – democracy

09 3rd, 2011

How different the approaches to Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011.  In the words of the British prime minister. David Cameron:- 

‘We have learnt the lessons from Iraq and past conflict; there have not been occupying armies, there have not been great big invading forces.  This has been a Libyan-led process, assisted by the international community. I’m an optimist about Libya.’

The question now: Can the patience of the people survive the time it takes to build the institutions of checks and balance that will make democracy succeed? 

 Democracy Kills — Kindle Edition

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India’s foray into Chinese waters.

09 3rd, 2011

China’s closest hot war enemies are India with whom it has disputed borders and Vietnam which gave it a bloody nose in a border war in 1979. Now it’s emerged that an Indian navy ship tried to make a visit to Vietnam in July only to be told by a Chinese warship that it was intruding in Chinese waters. The incident brings into light the looming rivalry between India and China in South East Asia.

The South China Sea is now widely seen as one of the region’s key strategic flashpoints. China’s territorial claim over most of the South China Sea has brought it into dispute with five other countries in the region.

The Third World War — A Future History

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China’s American warning

08 6th, 2011

As a sharp marker of who now considers itself to be the guardian of global responsibility, this warning to America from China — holder of US$1.1 trillion of US debt that it fears is being devalued. 

“The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone,” said a commentary by thje Xinhua News Agency.

China has told the US to make substantial cuts to its “gigantic military expenditure” and its “bloated social welfare” programs.

The Third World War — A Future History

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China appeasement

07 31st, 2011

Aaron L Friedberg warns in his new book China, America and the Struggle for Mastery of Asia, against a ‘cascade of appeasement” that will hand dominance of the Pacific to China. “If current trends continue,” he writes, “we are on track to lose our geographical contest with China.” 

The Third World War — A Future History

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South China Sea claims

07 20th, 2011

Five Philippine politicians have landed on a disputed island in the South China Sea, reigniting a row with China. The politicians arrived on Pagasa island, the only island in the Spratlys chain populated by Filipinos – and sang the national anthem with residents. The island is also claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam as part of a wider dispute in the South China Sea.

The Third World War — A Future History

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Hunger and child begging test Uganda aid experiment

07 19th, 2011

As appeals continue for the drought in East Africa, aid agencies’ eyes are on a region in nearby Uganda which is the focus of a global experiment in aid, reports Humphrey Hawksley.

Click here: Uganda Aid Experiment

In the past year, the UN’s World Food Programme has begun a project to try to end aid dependency in Karamoja and make the 1.2 million people there self-sufficient.

Food handouts are being strictly regulated, but many villagers are complaining of food shortages and charities report an increase in street begging by children.

“It’s getting worse because now there’s no food for the children, they all come back to Kampala to beg to earn a living,” says Maureen Mwagale, who runs a small charity called Kaana.

“These children are both physically and mentally abused.”

The children, as young as two, sit on the pavement of a busy shopping area, hands outstretched for money. We found two – Longorio, aged four, and his three-year-old cousin Lochien, being looked after by his 13-year-old sister, Nachiru Ellen.

She said she used to go to school but because of the lack of food in Karamoja her parents sent her to Kampala. Between the three of them, they had earned about $1 (£0.62) that day.

The children send much of the money to their village, Lorikitai.

Once there, we were told that up to 60 children from the community had been sent to Kampala to beg. Lochien’s aunt, Napfu, said her own little boy was there, too, and her little daughter would go soon.

“There’s nothing we can give them here,” said Nachiru Ellen’s father, Peter Lochoro.

The landscape of Karamoja is cruel and arid, the people among the poorest in the world.

The UN’s experiment includes planting thousands of acres of robust crop like sorghum and cassava that can withstand drought, starting new businesses and bringing infrastructure and some economy to the area.

But even now, serious glitches have arisen. The UN has cut school meals because of what it describes as an administrative problem with the supply chain.

“We used to have breakfast, lunch and supper,” says Diko Ben, the headmaster of Loodoi Primary School. “Now there’s just a midday snack. Many here are now malnourished and if it stays like this, I don’t think you will see a future.”

Mr Ben says 200 children, a quarter of the whole school, have left because of the lack of food, adding that every child in school means one less under threat of being sent to beg in the cities.

The UN says meals will be restored by September and that, with the Ugandan government, it is drawing up a plan to end the crisis over Karamoja children. But it is not in place yet.

One church charity rescues children – they are now at a boarding school in the town of Iriri.

“It was horrible,” says Amei Mandy, now 10, who begged for five years. “At night people would come and beat me and take my money.”

His friend Kodet Michael, also 10, says: “My mother said we had to go to Kampala because there was too much hunger. But when we got there she disappeared and left me.”

Only about 20 children are at the school, while the UN estimates that more than 12,000 mothers and children from Karamoja are begging on Ugandan city streets.

Despite setbacks, the UN insists its experiment is on course. A year ago, $215m was spent on feeding people in Karamoja. This year that figure has been cut to $90m, the bulk of which goes not on food handouts but long-term development.

If this experiment does work, it will be rolled out in other parts of the world.

Click here: Uganda Aid Experiment
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