Why is it possible to board a plane with a piece of paper from our home printers, yet to board a train today, I needed, seven (I am not joking) SEVEN different tickets?   Is this because some half-dead remnant, clinging onto a pension, sits in a gate-keeper’s box inventing blocks to efficient trade and travel. 

The Third World War — A Future History

I just found this Ciao review on Third World War:-  

Hawksley’s books, at least the ones that I own, are not your average works of fiction. I am a big fan of Tom Clancy, but this kind of writing is in a class/category of its own. Although you have your standard cast of characters, the way he’s constructed it, doesn’t quite make you feel like you are reading a fictional story. It’s more like a string of news items, which almost give a real-world feel to the things that are going on in the book. Very unique style of writing indeed! But I should tell you that it’s still up there with the rest of the superb works of fiction!!

The Third World War — A Future History

And if we thought Asia was OK…..Fitch Ratings has warned  that it might downgrade the credit rating of China  within two years and there was a greater than even chance of a downgrade of Japan’s credit status.   So in the past couple of months, big warning signs over the world’s three biggest economies — America, China and Japan. 

The Third World War — A Future History

Eric Komfel alerted me to a DFID funded study Working with the Grain? Rethinking African Governance, and published earlier this year.  Eric cites an excerpt:- 

Excerpts: “Should the governance of poor developing countries mimic what works in advanced capitalist democracies? Of course not. Yet for 20 years ‘good governance’ has meant exactly that. … Democracy … depends on social and economic conditions that are not yet enjoyed in most developing countries. … Many young democracies are not particularly developmental … In many settings, clientelism (vote-buying in its various forms) is cheaper and more reliable … What poor developing countries really need are leaders who … are able to show that they can ‘get things done’. … It is important, therefore, that external actors such as donors are capable of: recognising developmental leadership when they see it, by becoming more attuned to the variety of types of regimes and how they work”.

Click here: Democracy Kills — Kindle Edition

Europe’s financial crisis has underlined a tricky truth.  Power among the 17 sovereign Euro states may have to be more centralised if monetary union is to work.  The United States discovered this in the 18^th Century, when the loose confederation between 13 states failed to work without a strong central authority.

It may not be high idealism but grubby reality that leads to the creation of the United States of Europe.

The Third World War — A Future History

How different the approaches to Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011.  In the words of the British prime minister. David Cameron:- 

‘We have learnt the lessons from Iraq and past conflict; there have not been occupying armies, there have not been great big invading forces.  This has been a Libyan-led process, assisted by the international community. I’m an optimist about Libya.’

The question now: Can the patience of the people survive the time it takes to build the institutions of checks and balance that will make democracy succeed? 

 Democracy Kills — Kindle Edition

China’s closest hot war enemies are India with whom it has disputed borders and Vietnam which gave it a bloody nose in a border war in 1979. Now it’s emerged that an Indian navy ship tried to make a visit to Vietnam in July only to be told by a Chinese warship that it was intruding in Chinese waters. The incident brings into light the looming rivalry between India and China in South East Asia.

The South China Sea is now widely seen as one of the region’s key strategic flashpoints. China’s territorial claim over most of the South China Sea has brought it into dispute with five other countries in the region.

The Third World War — A Future History

As a sharp marker of who now considers itself to be the guardian of global responsibility, this warning to America from China — holder of US$1.1 trillion of US debt that it fears is being devalued. 

“The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone,” said a commentary by thje Xinhua News Agency.

China has told the US to make substantial cuts to its “gigantic military expenditure” and its “bloated social welfare” programs.

The Third World War — A Future History

Aaron L Friedberg warns in his new book China, America and the Struggle for Mastery of Asia, against a ‘cascade of appeasement” that will hand dominance of the Pacific to China. “If current trends continue,” he writes, “we are on track to lose our geographical contest with China.” 

The Third World War — A Future History

Five Philippine politicians have landed on a disputed island in the South China Sea, reigniting a row with China. The politicians arrived on Pagasa island, the only island in the Spratlys chain populated by Filipinos – and sang the national anthem with residents. The island is also claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam as part of a wider dispute in the South China Sea.

The Third World War — A Future History