This entry was posted on Thursday, December 11th, 2008 at 6:32 am and is filed under General Discussion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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Iraq has stood strong against three outside ideological forces that attempt to sway its future: the brutal violence of Al Qaeda, the rigid inflexibility Iran-inspired and aided Shia conservatives, as well as the US neoconservative vision that anticipated an instant switch to democracy and privatization, explains BBC correspondent Humphrey Hawksley. With the approval of a US-Iraq bilateral deadline for US troop withdrawal, known as the Security Pact, the prospect of Iraq being partitioned among intransigent groups or collapsing has vanished. “Success will be determined by how much Iraqis’ own loyalty shifts from tribal and religious consideration to national interest,” writes Humphrey, though hints of the shift have emerged. The US has a track record in guiding chaotic states toward vibrant democracies in Taiwan and South Korea, and can do so again, although the challenges are greater considering round-the-clock news coverage as well as the many complications associated with the Middle East. Hawksley concludes that a stable Iraq requires US focus, patience and resources, perhaps for three decades to come. – YaleGlobal http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=11715 |
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One Response to “Iraq — Think Taiwan, not Vietnam”
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December 14th, 2008 at 4:35 am
Dear Humphrey,
I enjoy your reports on Iraq, but your colleague’s report on lessons learned from Gertrude Bell and her 1920 letters from Iraq is the kind of thing that really drives me crazy.
There is absolutely no comparison between Iraq in 1920 and Iraq today. In 1920, Iraq was in a generational Crisis era, fighting the Great Iraqi Revolution of 1920. It was a major crisis war, where hundreds of thousands of Sunni and Shia united to fight the British forces to the death, with many casualties. It was a major turning point in Iraq’s history.
Iraq’s next crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. At that time, once again, and for the first time since 1920, Sunni and Shia were united, fighting against the Iranians in a massively genocidal war. The 1980s period is the appropriate historical comparison to the 1920 war.
So, what period in Iraq’s history would be an appropriate time of comparison to Iraq today?
Well, today we’re one generation past the Iran/Iraq war, so go one generation past the Great Iraqi Revolution.
If you do that, they you find an amazing historical parallel that nobody ever seems to want to acknowledge.
After WW II, there were popular demonstrations protesting the presence of British troops in Iraq. Finally, by 1948, the protests had gotten so bad that the British were forced to remove their troops from Iraq and give up sovereignty over the two air bases in Iraq. That’s exactly what’s going on today.
And note this: In 1920 and the 1980s there were actual genocidal wars. In 1948 and today, there are uprisings, much like the uprisings in America and Europe in the 1960s, but NO WAR. They’re POLITICAL uprisings. (In generational theory, political uprisings are characteristic of generational Awakening eras, starting one generation after the end of the preceding crisis war.)
Now here’s another important point: Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani was born in 1930, and was part of the Iraq scene in 1948. I’ve done a little research and haven’t been able to determine what part he took in the anti-British uprisings, but at the very least he must have been aware of them and sympathized with them.
If you want a REAL story, with REAL historical significance, and REAL lessons for today, then try to arrange an interview with al-Sistani for the purpose of asking him about the 1948 anti-British uprising. I can guarantee with almost absolutely certainty that you will get some fascinating and valuable information that no one else in the west is even thinking about.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum