China refuses the recognise Taiwan. Cyprus refuses to recognise northern Cyprus. Both places could — if they wished — exploit present injustices, stalled diplomacy and historical grievances to return to violence. But they don’t — and there are many other examples around the world.  What, then, is different in the mindset of the Israelis and Palestinians to that of the majority of places in potential conflict?   Once this is established, a solution may be found.

The British government is thinking of keeping track of everyone’s phone calls, e-mails texts and internet use and using a private company to do it.  Critics say it is paranoid  attempt to create a world of total security.

Security Breach –  KAT POLINSKI & Murder in a World of Total Surveillance 

After five years of war, the Iraqis have probably decided they don’t want to fight each other. After three years of war, the Bosnians, Serbs and Croats preferred a flawed peace to continuing bloodshed. But after more than fifty years, the Israelis and Palestinians still opt for conflict. What then is the difference in mindset between them and those who chose to stop fighting?�

One month after the Mumbai killings, the terror groups, it seems, are achieving some of their aims. Tension between India and Pakistan is high. Pakistan is moving troops away from its western border with Afghanistan, where they are deployed to fight Taliban and Al Qaeda insurgents. A similar scenario followed the 2001 attacks on the Indian parliament which brought the two countries close to all-out war. The Mumbai attacks were odious, but there must be a public safety mechanism that stops such incidents jump-starting India and Pakistan towards a nuclear war. Just back-off both of you, because with tension also rising between North and South Korea, we’re heading for a the scenario that begins my novel, The Third World War. 

Best wishes to all who drop by this blog. Despite the demands for Breaking News crises from 24-hour-news channels, the world is in pretty good shape — far better than half or quarter of a century ago. Iraq was meant to collapse into civil war and partition. It didn’t. The summer was full of talk about a new Cold War, but no-one seemed to want it. In the economic downturn, China’s proved to be not a strategic threat but a global ally.  And the dreadful famines and diseases that used to kill millions seem to be no more. 

All the more reason to spend the New Year season with great thrillers  The Third World War, for fictional analysis of how disaster could strike and Security Breach for a sassy kick-ass heroine, Kat Polinski, who’ll keep you curled up on the edge of your seat late into the night.

Shortly before the Bush shoe throwing, I tested what Iraqi’s thought of him. It was utter and personal revulsion, reflecting the views of the shoe thrower Muntadar al-Zaidi.  But fascinatingly, their views of Americans as a whole were completely positive. 

 And two ironies, if he had hurled his shoes at Saddam, al-Zaidi would have been on death row by now. The rallies hailing him as a hero were organised, it seems, by the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr who voice has only been allowed by the US invasion of Iraq.�

Zeeman is a strapping young man, broad shouldered with a maturity and authority far beyond his age of only 21. He is veteran of

Hopefully, the war is ending – and now it’s about reconciliation. But ever since the invasion – on just about every American patrol – bad times or good – there’s been an Iraqi interpreter. But today when we filmed they didn’t want us to show their faces. They are terrified what might happen to when the US forces leave and if war breaks out again. They live in fear or retaliation.

At present I’m in Baghdad. The agreement to withdraw US troops from Iraq by the end 2011, and severely curtail their powers from the beginning of next year, is hugely symbolic for the Iraqi government. Instead of the US forces being here under a United Nations mandate, they are deployed under a bi-lateral agreement between two sovereign powers. The last minute negotiations that delayed the  vote for a day also symbolised that Iraq is becoming a working democracy with issues being decided by elected parliamentarians and not by gunmen on the streets.

The first months of next year, then, will be the beginning of a test run as to ho much the US forces can hold back and how much the newly-trained Iraqi forces can take over the job of stabilising Iraq and ending the violence.  Large swathes of the country have already been handed over to Iraqi control, although the US continues to provide crucial intelligence and logistics support, and in many cases special forces teams are embedded with the Iraqi troops as advisers and mentors. But their presence is almost invisible.

Although violence has dropped, the war here is far from over.