A British parliamentary report has accused the government and the European Union of a ‘catastrophic misreading’ of Russia’s thinking over Ukraine. The response from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office reveals why this was undoubtedly the case and why the FCO itself may be in need of urgent and substantive reform. The FCO says that no-0ne could have predicted the scale of the unjustifiable and illegal Russian intervention. Firstly, Vladimir Putin and his advisers knew, so the use of ‘no-one’ is symptomatic of lazy and inaccurate language. Second, there had been predictions. Diplomats only had to consult Ed Lucas, Anne Applebaum and many others to understand what was at stake. Third, for years — at least since the Georgia war of 2008 — British officials have been briefing about the dictatorial and kleptomaniacal regime of Vladimir Putin so any ‘unjustifiable or illegal actions’ should come as no surprise. Fourth, the FCO argues that the EU Association Agreement was the catalyst to Russian intervention. This is not the case. The catalyst was the overthrow of the elected pro-Russian president which — rather than wait for elections — Britain supported. There is a risk of one of the finest diplomatic services becoming ridden with hubris, naivity and lazy thinking — that if only Saddam, Ghadaffi, Assad, Mubarak, Yanukovych, Putin stepped aside a panoply of democtratic institutions would fall from Heaven and all would be fine. Both Putin and Yanukovych came to power precisely because early experiments with democracy in their countries failed. You don’t need need trade craft-trained spies and columns of Russian specialists to assess what Vladimir Putin might do next. You only need to follow Twitter.
When, in 1989, the Chinese government killed its own citizens campaigning for freedom, there was no moral question from Western democracies. China became the monster of the world and put under heavy sanctions. A quarter of a century later, as Egyptians campaigning for the same freedoms are murdered by their own government, tourists continue to holiday there and weapons and aid flood in to prop up the regime. What has happened to us?
Pity the youth now deciding between the bullet and ballot box, dictatorship and democracy. Rarely have the mission statements from Western leaders been so contradictory and skewed. From the West, they have been exporting brand democracy while sponsoring the overthrow of two democratically leaders — in Egypt and Ukraine — because they weren’t strategic allis. In Britain, they fly flags at half mast to mark the death of a ruler whose values advocated the beating of journalists and the treating women as property. After the dreadful Charlie Hebdo killings they march in Paris as a show of championing free speech, but shoulder to shoulder with regimes that oversee the violent crushing of writers and commentators who use that free speech. We are told we are at war with extreme Islam as if a multi-million dollar Al Qaeda orIslamic State franchise masterminded and micro-managed the Paris murders. (The killers had to steal money from a gas station to get away.) Is it really religious extremism or flaws in France’s system of social care, reconciliation from its Algerian war, ethnic integration or many other factors that attach people to violence and a false, higher moral cause. Oxfam tells us that in this recent era, when the Western democratic system has had a clear canvas to prove its worth, 99 per cent of global wealth is about to be held by just one per cent of its population, some of whom are partying at a Swiss mountain resort this week. So what, then, is the current mission statement from the West? Could they let us know and make it more attractive to those coming from Moscow, Beijing and Mosul.
Israeli academic Yuval Noah Harari explains in his book Sapiens — a Brief History of Humankind that our present human species got ahead of all other animals after the discovery of fire. This allowed us to cook and therefore digest food quicker which in turn allowed our stomachs to become smaller and our brains bigger — underlining the argument that the less time spent thinking and dealing with food a cleverer a society becomes. In our work, many of us would have sat through excruciatingly tedious banquets being lectured on the exotic cuisine and ancient and glorious civilisation from which its comes. These are often poor, corrupt and violent countries. Japan, however, that invented fast food Sushi in the late 19th Century became the first Asian nation to defeat a European one — Russia — at Port Arthur in 1905. And America which began mainlining fast food into its national culture in the 1920s quickly became the global super power. Come to think of it, I can’t remember that nugget of the American dream Jack Bauer from 24 ever eating at all.
Thirty years after the Ethiopian famine, Africa is enjoying a new confidence with strong economies, the hopes and tears of new democracies and a sense that this is a continent on the rise. Then Live Aid 30 comes along ostensibly to raise money for the Ebola crisis. Firstly, charity is nice, but it’s not necessary. There’s plenty of money around. Second, many of those in the developing world are sick of aid hand-outs which they associate with failure and corruption. What they want more than anything else is to have a voice in a system that works for them. Live Aid 30 represents everything that Africa is not. There are no brilliant, talented African voices on the new Christmas single. The recording studio was closed to them. Instead, there is a stream of almost all white faces getting out of limousines to make a song to create a hand-out for a place that’s painted as being diseased, impoverished and incapable of looking after itself.
In June, we marked 25 years since the Chinese killings of Tiananmen Square. Today, we celebrate 25 years since the end of the Berlin Wall. Enough time has past to ask a difficult question. If the Tiananmen democracy activists had won concessions in June, how big would their protests have become after November as Eastern Europe dissolved and what sort of country would China be now?
For nearly twenty years, Taiwan has shown that democracy can work within a Chinese society. During this time threats of war have ended and relationship between Taiwan and China has improved dramatically. This success could become a model for Hong Kong and then for other, richer parts of China in a gradual process of reform. Instead, Hong Kong has become an ideological battleground and China’s hostility to democracy is becoming embedded in the promotion of its values on the world stage.
This week might be remembered for two big dumb decisions.
1) The Hong Kong’s government’s cancellation of talks with protestors.
2) The decision by the enemies of Islamic State not to defend Kobane.
By definition, democracy entails both representative government and majority rule. Factions, minority or majority, who take a disliking to some government policies no longer bide their time, cooperating in the process while waiting for the next election. “The new reality is that tenure in office is set not through an agreed electoral cycle, but by ability to keep protesters off the streets,” suggests author and BBC journalist Humphrey Hawksley. Reasons for protests vary: In societies like Iraq with a long history of mistrust, elections fail to build fair institutions. In nations like Egypt and Thailand, educated and wealthy protesters are alarmed by decisions made by a larger block of rural poor. In Hong Kong, vast numbers simply do not trust the system or leaders’ interpretations of laws. Rapid messaging of social media and outsiders who diminish rule of law by supporting protests for strategic reasons encourage dangerous trends. Democracy requires adherence to the rule of law and patience. – YaleGlobal
In Hong Kong and Elsewhere, Democracy’s Messy Process Challenged in the Street
|Rule of Leung and the street: CY Leung is the constitutionally elected ruler of Hong Kong (top), but is shaken by protestors who demand more drect democracy|
LONDON: Thousands of demonstrators trying to topple Hong Kong’s legal ruler CY Leung and set terms for the 2017 election symbolize a new political trend: Whichever constitutional way a ruler has been brought to power, ability to continue might depend on the consent of the social media–connected populace forcing its will onto the streets. That at least has been the case with Mohamed Morsi of Egypt and Ukraine’s Vladimir Yanukovych. Leung is untainted by corruption, yet even if he continues, his effectiveness has been badly compromised.
In the past two years, a political trend has emerged that takes legitimacy of government into perilous and unchartered territory.
Democratically-elected leaders of culturally diverse countries such as Egypt, Thailand and Ukraine have been overthrown by street protests.
Within weeks of an elected government coming to power in newly independent South Sudan, the country collapsed into violence. War has flared up again in Iraq where the finest minds in international development working with unlimited funds have failed to stop conflict.
And most recently, protesters in Hong Kong, which enjoys a swathe of freedoms and high standards of living, are demanding to choose their own leader, despite not even being a sovereign state.
Since the end of the Cold War, the broadly accepted method of delivering authority to a government has been through voter choice at the ballot box. In the case of dramatic change such as the overthrow of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak or Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, the what- next question has been answered by the holding of elections, often under a new constitution and the watch of international observers.
But as a safety valve against discontent, elections now fail to do their job. The new reality is that tenure in office is set not through an agreed electoral cycle, but by ability to keep protesters off the streets.
Elections no longer act as a safety valve against discontent. Office-holders must keep protesters off the streets.
The pact between government and citizens, therefore, is being determined by far more obscure elements, drawing us back to 1762 when Jean-Jacques Rousseau coined the phrase “The Social Contract.”This challenged the right of monarchies to rule and emphasized that power should be in the hands of that indefinable entity of the state, whose architecture would be decided by an equally indefinable force – the will of the people.
“Each of the recent protests are different and respond to different issues,” says John Morrison, author of The Social License, which examines how organizations acquire and lose legitimacy. “But some clearly relate specifically to what might be called ‘political license,’ attempts by populations to renegotiate the social contract granted to specific governments – or at least to make such governments more accountable.”
Constitutions are written to define this contract. Elections are held to determine the will of the people through majority vote. So why now is this being so readily torn apart?
The cases largely fall into two categories. One, such as Iraq and South Sudan, involves societies with deep, historical mistrust where the use of western-style elections has failed to build fair institutions. The result has been catastrophic.
The other is more complex, involving educated and comparatively wealthy stakeholders whose societies are mentored western democracies.
The Ukrainian constitution, for example, states that the president is elected for a “five-year term on the basis of universal, equal and direct suffrage, by secret ballot.” Viktor Yanukovych lasted four years, until February 2014.
Egypt’s provisional 2011 constitution provided for a secret ballot and a presidential term of four years. Street protests and a military coup ended Mohamed Morsi’s tenure after a year.
Thailand’s Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, elected in a landslide with wide support among the poor, was deposed after less than three years, again after protests followed by military intervention.
|Two trends behind the wave of discontent: social media and western leaders upending rule of law for strategic reasons.|
Hong Kong’s chief executive should serve until 2017, but until this weekend protesters wanted him out now. Their main objection is his support for a clause written into their Basic Law, a constitution published 24 years ago – before many of them were born: The ultimate aim, it states, is to elect the chief executive “by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures.”
The nominating committee, seen as a vetting mechanism used by the Communist Party of China, is at the heart of their discontent. The committee follows the constitution, but devalues the implicit promise of respecting people’s wishes expressed in the words “universal suffrage.” One-person, one-vote is not enough as the protesters doubt that Beijing as vetting authority has Hong Kong’s interest at heart.
Two elements appear to be behind this current wave of discontent around the world.
First is what has become known as social media. As technology and communications improve such media become more powerful.
“Social media connects protest to both internal dissent and the wider world, independently of mainstream media and any biases of limitations that may have,” says Richard Sambrook, former BBC director of news. “And as a pure means of self expression it gives meaning, momentum and unity to what might otherwise be individual acts of smaller protest.”
Second – and most importantly – western leaders have diminished the rule-of-law by supporting some protests, notably in Egypt and Ukraine where the elected governments were seen to pose strategic threats. Morsi represented Islamic extremism and Yanukovych symbolized an anti-western Russia pushing influence too far.
The West could have taken a lead, pointing out that creating a strong democracy is a long, messy process; high levels of corruption and mismanagement are inevitable in the early stages, and the best way forward is to follow the constitution and exercise choice at the next election.
One strain running through the protests: lack of clarity about which system or individual is a viable alternative.
Instead, it opted for immediate strategic interests against the very values of fair governance it advocates.
The track record so far in this trend for changing governments has not been good.
Ukraine has lost Crimea and fights a separatist war. There are car bombings in Egypt where human-rights activists say repression is now worse than in the days of Mubarak. A military government controls Thailand. There is war in Iraq, Libya, South Sudan and others.
Hong Kong remains on a knife-edge.
One strain running through the protests is that while knowing whom or what they want to overthrow, there is a lack of clarity about which system or individual is a viable alternative.
Hong Kong protesters are demanding elections carried out to “international standards.” But those standards are far from clear.
Britain’s prime ministers have no direct electoral mandate. US presidents are chosen by indirect election, state by state, via the procedurally intricate Electoral College system. Neither, it seems, would satisfy demands in Hong Kong.
And with US$38,000 GDP per capita and world-class transport, education and health systems, Hong Kong shows this is as much about dignity and control as it is about living standards and money.
A quarter of century ago, after the end of the Cold War, western-style democracy was given free rein to prove its worth, and there have been notable successes, mostly in Europe and Latin America.
But such governance may have reached a stage where both mentors and those campaigning for it are at a loss as to where the end game lies.
Democracy, after all, represents hope and fairness. For democracy to be a system of government, there must be adherence to the rule-of-law, and the West’s support for the abrupt tearing up of constitutions destroys benchmarks of governance. The way forward is precarious.
Rousseau’s social contract also had a problematic track record. It began with the concept that the will of the people would create a stable foundation for future government – 27 years later came the French revolution, the guillotine, mass killings and military rule by Napoleon.
In that story are echoes of the Arab Spring, Iraq, Ukraine and – although too soon to tell – possibly Hong Kong.
Humphrey Hawksley is BBC Correspondent specializing in development. His latest book,Democracy Kills: What’s So Good About Having the Vote is published by Macmillan.
Credible reports are now coming through of a coup attempt or serious unrest in North Korea. There have been internal travel restrictions in place since September 27th, The leader Kim Jung-un has not been seen in public since September 4th. Last December, he executed his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, who had vast power networks througout North Korea and China. He has had five defence ministers since he came to office in 2011. China, South Korea and the United States have been under pressure to make detailed plans for North Korea’s collapse, including securing its nuclear weapons.
And now, senior North Korean officials are sending out olive branches — the latest being a surprise visit to South Korea for the closing ceremony of the Asian Games. The world’s most precarious political transition could be beginning.
inambassador to Geneva threeoth China VChChina